In their December 2018 Currency Outlook report, Tempus, an exchange rate and global payments company, provides a detailed report including the following topics and sections:

In Brief

• The Fed has hinted at slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, thus slowing the momentum of the USD
• Despite pressure on the USD, consistent economic data kept it afloat
• November oil prices fell about 30%, thus the chances of the Mexican Peso or the Canadian Dollar increasing have also fallen
• Brexit pressures brought the GBP down 2%
• Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Singapore Dollar and South African Rand rose on risk-appetite
• The Brexit deadline was postponed to November 21 and the GBP remains volatile
• The Euro increased as concerns over Italy’s budget faded with hopes of compromise

In Focus
British Prime Minister May has little support and so do the prospects for the GBP

The View – The U.S. Dollar may see end of the year troubles return

• The U.S. Dollar has gained almost 4% this year and therefore it would take a major shift for the currency to close the year with a losing performance
• In spite of the U.S. Dollar’s strength, this year-end feels like 2017 when market turbulence provoked fear and the effects were felt strongly by the dollar
• Uncertainty in global markets has benefited the U.S. Dollar’s strength, but modified trade agreements and recovery could put pressure on its strength
• December 19 marks an anticipated fourth interest rate hike anticipated by the Fed if economic indicators remain strong
• Trump and others are criticizing the Fed’s pace of interest rate hikes, indicating that the hikes could be an obstacle to manufacturing and employment
• The European Central Bank is expected to announce the end of its quantitative easing program which was designed to dig the continent out of a deep hole
• If the Italian budget is approved and the difficulties reaching a deal are forgiven, a fiscal revamp is possible in the Eurozone in which nations will receive more flexibility on bending debt and deficit limits
• The Euro could see a boost as a result of improved political environment as an effort has been made to address job-creation, modernization of infrastructure and keeping the European Union
• The December 11 UK Parliament vote to see if the EU-approved deal passes will be critical to see if the deal by Prime Minister May will be able to survive

IBC Members can download the complete Currency Outlook from the members-only section of the IBC website under the Special Reports section. IBC membership is free for all regular IHA members – to learn more and to join, visit the IBC membership information page.