In their March 2019 Currency Outlook report, Tempus, an exchange rate and global payments company, provides a detailed report including the following topics and sections:

In Brief

• The USD recovered about half of its January losses in February, increasing .7%
• The Brazilian Real and South African Rand sank dramatically
• The Australian and New Zealand Dollars both slowed their growth after the central bank pessimism and labor lag
• The British Pound surged 1.4% on the improved chances of a “no-deal” Brexit
• Slightly positive indicators prevented the Euro from sinking more than .5%
• The Dow Jones rose 3.4%, global equity markets felt revived by positive talks on trade issues

In Focus
Since mid-December, the British Pound has risen by 5.4% and the EU wants to know what the UK wants

The View – Movement in the direction of resolutions could mean reversal of the USD

• A lot of work has been done in the first quarter to fix or contain the 2018 market’s problems
• Brexit is seen as the largest risk-event of 2019
• The U.S. and China are committed to finding an end to the tariff impasse
• Chinese manufacturing turmoil and decreased demand for imported products positioned the USD as a safe-haven asset
• Although the Euro-zone is not at its strongest, there are signs of recovery including: expansion of retail sales in Germany by 3.3%, expansion of the French Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and inflation on the continent is on the rise in the form of Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index
• Chinese communication and tech provider, Huawei, has been given the OK by EU parliament to begin setting up 5G networks in the Euro-zone
• Italy looks to propel a revamp in infrastructure exercising its new budget and France looks to find peace with labor unions in opposition with Macron’s government

IBC Members can download the complete Currency Outlook from the members-only section of the IBC website under the Special Reports section.  IBC membership is free for all regular IHA members – to learn more and to join, visit the IBC membership information page.