In their November 2018 Currency Outlook report, Tempus, an exchange rate and global payments company, provides a detailed report including the following topics and sections:

In Brief

• The USD was boosted as a safe-haven due to concerns over “tit-for-tat” tariffs
• After the cancellation of a $13 BN airport project was cancelled the Mexican Peso fell 8%
• The revised NAFTA boosted the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar by an average of 1.9%
• The Euro reached its 16-month low
• The wild dips and climbs of the equity market benefitted the Japanese Yen’s strength
• The Brexit deadline was postponed to November 21 and the GBP remains volatile
• Oil prices had their worst month since 2016, keeping the Canadian Dollar under pressure

In Focus
New leadership in Mexico, apprehension over trade and insecurity over policies hurt the strength of the Mexican Peso.

The View – Global Budgets Must be Adjusted for a New Year and New Dynamics

• As the year comes to an end, the global economy faces many risk events such as the Brexit deal deadline, the final meetings of the central bank and election fall out, all of which have considerable influence on FX
• Italy is a prime example of how quickly a government may change its tactics if voters establish dissatisfaction with the polls
• Pride, which many feel has been lost in the Italian economy, is what has dictated the thinking behind the push for heavy expenditures in job creation
• It is not only Italian leaders who are pushing to give themselves room to go further into dept, but also the governments in Spain and Czech Republic
• It seems politics are re-shaping the integration-driven mentality of the EU population
• Now that Chancellor Merkel has announced plans to leave her post, France may need to expedite plans to be the new go-to leader of European affairs
• The situation in the UK does not seem hopeful for appreciation of the GBP, especially with the deadline extension
• It’s likely that the USD will remain steady and economic numbers consistent

IBC Members can download the complete Currency Outlook from the members-only page of the IBC website under the Special Reports section. IBC membership is free for all regular IHA members – to learn more and to join, visit the IBC membership information page.