In their October 2018 Currency Outlook report, Tempus, an exchange rate and global payments company, provides a detailed report including the following topics and sections:

In Brief

• The USD finished almost even in September, per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index
• Economic consistency and an interest rate hike by the Fed helped the dollar close the month
• The revised NAFTA boosted the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar by an average of 1.9%
• Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc fell based on improved trade and record equities
• Italy became a problem for the Euro-zone with disagreements over fiscal spending
• British Prime Minister survived attacks from her own political party and is proceeding with Brexit in her way

In Focus
The US Dollar seemed to have peaked in August but uncertainty keeps it rising

The View – Fiscal spending is the new focus as monetary policy fades

• As the Fed and the Bank of England have done, it is possible that the European Central Bank will be ready to increase rates, as most analysts believe the Euro-zone will be ready to withstand higher borrowing costs by the second half of 2019
• Budget chaos in Italy points out that EU may face stability challenges if a member does not cooperate in the name of populism
• The Euro feels the negative effects of its third largest economy, Italy, struggling with changes to its leadership, who are struggling to fix infrastructure, income inequality and condemning globalization
• Although GDP, inflation and spending have seen some growth in the UK, the main focus is separation from the EU
• The British Pound rose 1.2% in value in September, recovering from its August loses
• November 17 is the deadline for the UK withdraw deal with the actual withdrawal on March 19, although the deal date has been pushed once before and may be extended again
• It is anticipated that the Fed will increase interest rates a total of four times in 2019 based on domestic performance

IBC Members can download the complete Currency Outlook from the members-only section of the IBC website under the Special Reports section. IBC membership is free for all regular IHA members – to learn more and to join, visit the IBC membership information page.